Trade What's Happening Now
Rule: Trade what's happening, not what I anticipated.
Starting a trade or trading day with a biased is major mistake. You must trade in the now, you must watch the stock and go where it tells you. There are strategies that claim to have an edge by anticipating a move such as a Gap Up will go up, and Gap Down will go down. I've found this to be unreliable and at best 50/50. There are some concepts that can be factored in but you must give priority to what's happening in front of you at the moment.
Anticipate the move based only on the price action at the moment and the value system of your trading plan.
Gap up or gap down has a decision value of 10%.
The current pattern pattern has a decision value of 60% .
Trade the stock not the Spy. Although the Spy has some effect, the stock price action is a more reliable indicator. The Spy has a 10% decision value.